Congressional Republicans are working on another all-GOP budget reconciliation bill that must first be authorized by a Congressional Budget Resolution (CBR). The House CBR (H.Con.Res.113) is narrow, providing funding only for Defense; Agriculture; and incentives for the States to enact stricter voter identification, proof of citizenship, and other voting rules. The CBR is controversial even among Republicans, and the issues it excludes have triggered promises from leadership to do yet another all-GOP reconciliation bill during lame duck, after the November elections.
The House passed H.Con.Res.113 on July 22, by a narrow 216 to 214 vote. It authorizes the committees of jurisdiction to write legislation that would grant some $67 billion for Defense; $12 billion for relief for farmers; and $10 billion in incentives for States to enact strict voter identification, proof of citizenship and potentially other restrictive voting rules (for example, restrictions on mail-in voting).
House GOP leadership promised rank-and-file GOP House members that they would move another reconciliation bill (it would be the fourth this Congress) during the post-election lame duck session to address the issues left out of H.Con.Res.113. That effort, if it materializes, could pull in tax issues. That could mean risk for NAIFA members and their clients.
The Senate is holding H.Con.Res.113 in case it’s needed to pass a temporary government funding bill without Democratic support. But once the government funding issues are settled, there are sure to be Senate-drafted changes to the House version of the CBR. There are a number of hotly controversial issues involved, including President Trump’s insistence on including “as much of the SAVE/SAVE America Act (the voting rules bill) as possible.” Not all Republicans support the SAVE/SAVE America Act and all Democrats oppose it. Plus, there are serious questions about whether any of it (and if so how much) will comply with the strict and complex rules governing reconciliation legislation. So this is a huge political as well as substantive issue.
One of the key issues in the CBR debate is its narrow scope. Arcane reconciliation rules (the “Byrd Rules”) allow amendments that fall within the jurisdiction of the committees that get reconciliation instructions in the CBR to pass on a simple majority (51-vote) level. So anything that triggers Senate Finance Committee jurisdiction (and that includes taxes, Medicare and Medicaid) risks amendments (even those offered by Democrats) that can pass, as well as amendments that even if they fail set up Republican Senators who vote against them for political risk during the elections that are coming within weeks of a vote on a reconciliation bill. This is a driving consideration in this debate.
Plus, a considerable number of lawmakers are concerned that the currently-proposed funding level for Defense is insufficient given the cost of the ongoing war against Iran. And another significant group of Senators are unhappy about the CBR’s lack of instructions to offset the costs of the new spending. These are also hot button issues in this debate.
Prospects: Many lawmakers are skeptical about Congress’ ability to find agreement that will enable enactment of first the CBR and then the reconciliation legislation it authorizes. There is even more skepticism about prospects for a fourth reconciliation bill in November-December. But Republicans, nervous about whether they can hang on to their majorities in 2027, want to enact as much of their priority agenda as possible. So, enactment of reconciliation legislation cannot be ruled out, despite the challenges it faces.
NAIFA Staff Contacts: Diane Boyle – Senior Vice President – Government Relations, at dboyle@naifa.org; Mike Hedge – Senior Director – Government Relations, at mhedge@naifa.org; or Jayne Fitzgerald – Director – Government Relations, at jfitzgerald@naifa.org