Control of the 120th Congress will be determined by the midterm November election results. And whichever party wins control will heavily influence the incoming 120th Congress’s agenda. Less than a month out from the elections, here is what polling and predicting suggest may happen.
Current polling at national, state and district levels suggest that Democrats will gain control of the House of Representatives, and that the Senate could also flip to Democratic control. At this writing, Democrats hold a nine-point lead (52 to 43) in polls measuring whether voters would prefer Democrat or Republican control of Congress. State-by-state and district-by-district polls indicate that if the polling numbers are accurate (and that is a big if—significantly, some polls have been wrong in the past several years), there could be as many as nine or 10 new Democrat-controlled House seats, and five or six Senate seats that could flip to Democratic control in the 120th Congress. Democrats need to flip only three seats to control the House, and four seats to control the Senate.
A cautionary note: things could change in the weeks between now and the November elections—“October surprises” are common. Also, polling has become notoriously difficult in this age of cell phones and social media. Plus, Republicans have a significant money advantage, and President Trump—whose popularity is on the wane but who retains strong support inside his base—has hit the campaign trail urging his supporters to turn out in large numbers to shift the momentum to the GOP.
The election results’ impact on the 120th Congress’s agenda will be significant. While lawmakers from both parties are increasingly concerned about the federal deficit (about $2 trillion) and debt (some $40 trillion), generally they hold diametrically opposite views on how to address the problem. Republicans, as a general rule, want to cut federal spending and that presents a high hurdle for enacting new benefits and/or incentives. Democrats, on the other hand, are more focused on raising or restructuring taxes on the wealthy and investing in social safety networks particularly health care. Democratic control of one or both chambers would also likely result in a focus on executive branch accountability and investigations into alleged corruption and other illegalities.
Whether the new Congress can find common ground on approaches that combine spending cuts with tax increases remains an open question. Whether newly-elected/reelected lawmakers can or will compromise, both internally in each party and between the two parties, will be key to the success or failure of the 2027-2028 agenda. So, too, will be President Trump’s reaction to legislative initiatives. He will continue to hold—and probably will use—his veto pen on initiatives he opposes.
Prospects: Issues that are particularly sensitive to this dichotomy include efforts to support long-term care, health insurance (and other) affordability issues, and business tax rules. Also looming large over the 2027 agenda will be the potential need to raise the government’s borrowing authority (the debt limit issue). Economists predict the debt limit will need to be raised (or suspended) by mid-year. Failure to do so would risk worldwide economic catastrophe, economists say. If the outgoing 119th Congress does not address this issue it will be a dominant force in the early going of the 120th Congress. And, the federal debt and deficit are growing increasingly worrisome to lawmakers—deficit/debt reduction could come into play at any time.
NAIFA Staff Contacts: Diane Boyle – Senior Vice President – Government Relations, at dboyle@naifa.org; Mike Hedge – Senior Director – Government Relations, at mhedge@naifa.org; or Jayne Fitzgerald – Director – Government Relations, at jfitzgerald@naifa.org