The House passed its version of the $6 trillion+ reconciliation bill (including a $3.8 trillion tax title), but we are still a long way from final action. Changes are expected in the Senate, and then more changes are likely as the House and Senate try to reconcile their two versions of the bill. Details are below. But first: a quick report on a highly successful NAIFA Congressional Conference last week.
NAIFA's signature grassroots event took place in the midst of intense activity House-side on the budget (reconciliation) bill. The House took a final vote on the measure just three days after NAIFA’s Congressional Conference participants hit the Hill to (as it turns out, highly successfully) educate lawmakers on the importance of current tax rules on the insurance and financial products used by middle America to protect their families’ and business’ financial futures.
Almost 500 NAIFA members from almost every State and Congressional District carried this important message. And the House listened. NAIFA supports the House version of the bill.
Early in the morning of May 22, after an all-night debate, the House passed HR 1, the budget reconciliation bill, by a narrow 215 to 214 vote. Two Republican House members voted against it; one voted present. All Democrats opposed it. The bill now heads to the Senate, where changes are expected.
There is still controversy, though little of the controversy impacts NAIFA issues. However, as with any live tax bill, the risk of an adverse offset (revenue-raising) provision is not eliminated until the bill is done. So we remain on high alert.
On the good news front, HR 1 permanently extends and expands the Section 199A deduction for qualified noncorporate business income. The new deduction level would be 23% (up from current law’s 20%).
But the measure also modifies the rules applicable to specified service trades or businesses (SSTBs) in a way that could hurt some SSTBs. Many NAIFA members are SSTBs and many more work with clients who are SSTBs.
The modification in question provides that state and local taxes for SSTBs would be disallowed at the entity level and would flow through the business to the business owners. That would impact (likely adversely) the calculation of that SSTB’s individual state and local tax (SALT) deduction.
In addition, in another section of HR 1, there is a provision that limits the value of itemized deductions for taxpayers in the 37% tax bracket. The limitation would reduce allowable itemized deductions for these taxpayers by 2/37 of the lesser of their total itemized deductions or the amount by which their taxable income plus total itemized deductions exceeds the 37% bracket threshold. This proposal would reduce the tax benefit of itemized deductions for 37% bracket taxpayers from 37% to 35%. For the 2025 tax year, the 37% tax rate applies to single individuals with taxable income over $626,350 and married couples filing jointly with taxable income over $751,600.
While this “tax-the-rich” provision impacts all 37% taxpayers, it has considerable impact on pass-through businesses (partnerships, Subchapter S corporations, sole proprietors), and therefore could undercut the value of the Section 199A deduction.
NAIFA is talking to Senators in an effort to fix these two problems. We will, of course, keep you posted as the process continues.
Tax: The tax title in HR 1 can (and probably will) change, but so far, NAIFA has done extremely well and is supporting the current package. In addition to the 199A and itemized deduction limitation described above, the bill includes the following provisions listed by areas of interest:
General Interest:
Business Interest:
Employer-Provided Benefits Interest:
Family Interest:
Estate and Charitable Givings Interest:
Senior Market Interest:
Health Market Interest:
House Republicans reached a compromise on the SALT deduction, raising it from the current $10,000 to $40,000 for taxpayers with incomes of $500,000 or less. Also compromised were other highly controversial issues, like many of the green energy rules enacted in the Inflation Reduction Act.
Among changes relevant to NAIFA interests being discussed in the Senate is an effort to eliminate the expiration dates in the House bill. Senators want to find a way to make all the tax rules in HR 1 permanent (i.e., not subject to an expiration date). Due to revenue considerations, most of the new tax rules in HR 1 expire within five years. So, permanence is a revenue issue, and is one place where the risk of offsetting revenue-raising proposals is highest.
Debt Limit: HR 1 also contains a $4 trillion increase to the U.S. debt limit, and Treasury says it will need that increase before the August congressional recess to avoid being unable to pay all the country’s obligations on a timely basis. This gives urgency to Congress finding a way to enact the reconciliation bill within the next eight weeks.
What’s Next? The Senate is now working on its version of the budget/reconciliation bill. The disagreements among GOP Senators (and between GOP Senators and GOP House members) are just as knotty as they were among Republican House members. The Senate is not known for speedy action. And with the urgent need for a debt limit increase by early August (the predicted X date is mid-August, but Congress will be out for summer recess by early August), timing becomes an issue. It is possible that the need to raise the debt limit will accelerate Senate (and then House-Senate) action. It is also possible the Senate will not finish by its target completion date of July 4 (or that even if the Senate does finish its work by then, there will remain the need to reconcile the Senate and House versions of the bill). If that happens, Congress will have to deal with the debt limit outside the budget/reconciliation process. That would mean Republicans would have to work with Democrats, something most Republicans want to avoid.
In short, House passage of HR 1 was an important step towards enactment, and one that featured tricky and difficult compromises among House Republicans. However, it is just one step. More remain. We are closer, but not yet anywhere near, completion of the reconciliation bill process.