Republicans will control the Senate in the incoming 119th Congress (2025-2026). The GOP’s undisputed win of 53 of the Senate’s 100 seats means Democrats have lost control of the upper chamber in the 119th Congress.

Republicans won the 218 seats needed to control the House; it will give the GOP the “trifecta”—a clean sweep of all three levers of legislative power in Washington.

A number of key issues remain to be addressed by the outgoing 118^th Congress. They include the need to fund the government past the December 20 dates on which current funding authority expires. The government funding issues include extension of National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) authority and funding.

If, as expected, the GOP controls both the House and Senate next year, the risks and challenges of the 2025 tax bill have become a bit clearer. Here is a run-down.

Incoming President-Elect Donald Trump’s Administration is likely to roll back a plethora of regulations of concern to NAIFA members and their clients.

On November 1, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) announced the inflation-adjusted limits for contributions in 2025 to retirement and other benefit plans. 

Four Democratic Senators have introduced legislation that would subject pass-through (non-corporate) business income to payroll (Social Security/Medicare) taxes. Currently, many pass-through businesses (S corporations, partnerships, sole proprietorships) characterize some of their business income as dividends or other non-wage income and thus avoid having to include it in the payroll tax base.

On October 7, National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) General Counsel Jennifer Abruzzo sent a memo to staff outlining heightened enforcement against illegal non-compete agreements. The 17-page memo outlines Abruzzo’s intention to assess costs to violators of the non-compete rules. In addition, the memo to staff indicates Abruzzo’s intention to challenge employer policies that require employees to repay training costs or other penalties if they leave within a specified time frame.

On September 26 President Biden signed into law the three-month funding bill that avoided a government shutdown on October 1. The continuing resolution (CR) extended fiscal year (FY) 2024 funding levels until December 20 and made few (none of them controversial) policy changes. So, the tough issues—e.g., FY 2025 funding levels, whether to block certain regulations (including the fiduciary rule)—were left to be resolved during the November-December lame duck session of the 118^th Congress.

On September 12, the Senate Finance Committee held a hearing to lay the groundwork for the 2025 tax bill effort to cut down on “tax avoidance.” The hearing highlighted proposals to improve tax equity in current law. It also focused considerable discussion on section 199A, the deduction for qualifying noncorporate business income.

The premium tax subsidies that allow lower-income individuals to get Affordable Care Act (ACA) health insurance free or at reduced cost are scheduled to expire at the end of 2025. If the current subsidies do expire, millions of low-income individuals will face significant health insurance cost increases. Extension of the subsidies will be a key issue in the 2025 tax bill and/or during the November-December lame-duck session of the 118^th Congress.

The ENABLE Act, a bill that makes permanent three provisions of the ABLE account law, passed the Senate under a unanimous consent agreement on September 19. The bill, the ENABLE Act, was introduced in the Senate by Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA), the author of the original ABLE Act, and Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-MO) and in the House by Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R-PA) and Rep. Don Beyer (D-VA).

Private sector economists, including the respected Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), are sounding the alarm over the cost of both presidential candidates’ tax proposals. This suggests the 2025 tax bill will be as much about revenue as tax policy.

A New York Congressman, Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-NY), is planning a long-term care conference for this spring. He wants wide participation to create and enact legislation to address the long-term care needs of the U.S. population.

On October 5, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) released its proposed rules for Affordable Care Act (ACA) health insurance for 2026. The rules cover agent/broker practices.

A September 30 report from the Treasury’s Inspector General for Tax Administration (TIGTA) finds that millions of taxpayers are not paying the ten percent early withdrawal penalty tax or income taxes owed on pre-retirement early withdrawals from their retirement savings plans. This raises the specter of Congressional review of proposals for tougher enforcement.

Last month the U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit upheld the Department of Labor’s (DOL’s) new overtime (OT) regulation. The court ruled that the regulation does not violate the Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA).

On October 3, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and Treasury issued new guidance, Notice 2024-73, on coverage requirements for long-term part-time employees (LTPTE), beginning in 2025. SECURE 2.0, enacted late in 2022, includes a provision requiring employer-sponsored retirement plans to allow long-term (those with service of two years or more) part-time (those who work at least 500 hours/year) to participate in the employer-sponsored retirement savings plan.

A bipartisan bill to cut off employee retention tax credit (ERTC) claims has been introduced in the Senate. The bill pulls the ERTC provisions from the House-passed HR 7024, a bill that has been long-stalled in the Senate.

On September 26, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) announced it is opening its employee retention tax credit (ERTC) corrections program to allow tax professionals, payroll companies and other third parties that filed ERTC claims on behalf of a business to make corrections to their clients’ claims under the agency’s voluntary disclosure program.