On September 26 President Biden signed into law the three-month funding bill that avoided a government shutdown on October 1. The continuing resolution (CR) extended fiscal year (FY) 2024 funding levels until December 20 and made few (none of them controversial) policy changes. So, the tough issues—e.g., FY 2025 funding levels, whether to block certain regulations (including the fiduciary rule)—were left to be resolved during the November-December lame duck session of the 118^th Congress.

Private sector economists, including the respected Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), are sounding the alarm over the cost of both presidential candidates’ tax proposals. This suggests the 2025 tax bill will be as much about revenue as tax policy.

The debt limit (the statutory limit on the amount the federal government can borrow) is currently suspended until January 2. That means unless Congress acts to raise the borrowing limit or further suspend the statutory cap on borrowing by January 2, the U.S. risks being unable to make timely payments on all of its obligations. Economists widely believe this would trigger worldwide economic catastrophe.

When Congress returns to Washington on September 9, lawmakers will have less than three weeks to fund the government (and consider any other pre-election pending legislation). Plus, Representatives and Senators will be focused on the November 5 election, when partisan control of the House, Senate, and Presidency are all in play. So, most Washington insiders believe that Congress will punt on most, if not all, major decisions, leading to a fraught post-election lame-duck session.

House Ways & Means Committee Republicans have formed ten issue-specific “tax teams” to work on what to include in the looming 2025 major tax bill. Senate Finance Committee Republicans will tackle these issues in six “working groups.” Both say they “may” include Democrats in their deliberations at some point, but for now, it is an all-GOP effort.

Recurring revenue estimates of the cost of extending the expiring 2017 tax cuts suggest that revenue will play a major role in the debate over the upcoming tax bill in 2025. After at least five revenue estimates, all covering a 10-year period that includes 2028, projections of the revenue lost due to current tax rules keep going up.

There will be a major tax bill in 2025, as both Republicans and Democrats contend with the looming expiration of most of the current tax code’s individual and estate tax rules. Scheduled for expiration at the end of 2025 are income and capital gains tax rates for individuals as well as the current $12+ million exemption from the estate tax. Tax policy will play a key role in the debate, but so will revenue—the cost of extending the 2017 rules is astronomical. And lawmakers are already looking at other tax issues—like, for example, the corporate tax rate—that are not scheduled to expire but are intrinsic to both tax policy and revenue issues.

Last month, Congress’ Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) released its annual “tax expenditure report.” This is a list of many tax code rules that result in the government not collecting tax on what would otherwise be taxable income. Many of these rules directly benefit life and health insurance, retirement savings, employer-provided benefits, and general investments.

New Speaker of the House Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA) promised to establish a bipartisan debt commission to address growing federal debt and deficit concerns. The commission would focus on revenue (taxes), spending, and the central role of entitlement programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. The federal debt reached $1.7 trillion in FY 2023.

On June 1, by bipartisan votes, Congress finalized approval of a bill (H.R.3746) embodying the Biden-McCarthy debt limit/spending cuts agreement. The agreement staves off the default on U.S. debt that Treasury stated would have come on June 5 unless Congress acted.

On April 26, the House of Representatives passed a partisan bill (H.R.2811) that would raise the debt limit “in exchange” for deep spending cuts. The bill is the GOP’s opening offer—in response to the FY 2024 Biden budget proposal—for use in what Republicans hope will be negotiations to approve spending cuts in return for their support for raising the debt limit.

The nation’s debt limit—the amount above which Treasury is precluded by statute from borrowing—could kick in as soon as June 1, according to Treasury Department projections. If it does, the U.S. could default on some of its obligations, putting at risk the full faith and credit of the United States. Economists say this would be catastrophic, resulting in substantial interest rate increases, massive jobs losses, and huge investment losses. Preventing this is at the top of the Congressional agenda this month.