On January 18, just one day before the deadline after which the government would have begun its partial shutdown, the Senate passed a continuing resolution (CR) that extends current government funding levels until March 1 for four of the 12 appropriations bills and March 8 for the remaining eight. The vote was 77 to 18. Just hours later, the House followed suit, passing the measure under suspension of the rules. The vote was 314 to 108. President Biden signed it into law on January 19.

The House vote came over the vociferous objections of the hard-right conservative members of the House (e.g., the Freedom Caucus). Speaker of the House Rep. Michael Johnson (R-LA) had to rely on Democratic votes to pass the CR, and thus is facing repercussions that could come to a head as the March deadlines draw near, if not sooner.

The CR includes a topline spending cap for fiscal year (FY) 2024 of just shy of $1.6 trillion—$704 billion for nondefense discretionary spending, and $886 billion for defense. That $1.6 trillion has been allocated—in private, the allocations have not been publicly released—among the 12 appropriations bills. These topline numbers reflect the agreement embodied in last spring’s Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA), the law that prevented a debt limit breach. Many Republicans, especially those in the House, fought hard to cut that level of spending, significantly. But ultimately, House-Senate-Administration negotiators agreed to live with the FRA spending level agreement.

Now, the House and Senate Appropriations Committee and subcommittees must craft the 12 bills that will fund the government for the balance of this fiscal year. It is a Herculean task, fraught with political and substantive controversy. And there is less than a month to write the legislation and then move it through the House, the Senate, a House-Senate compromise (usually but not always a Conference Committee), and get it signed by the President. Failure would trigger a government shutdown.

Also fraught in this process will be decisions about whether to include policy riders—provisions that forbid agencies from using FY 2024 funds for certain specified activities. Both chambers of Congress have policy rider priorities, as do both political parties. There are deep disagreements on virtually all of them.

Of particular interest to NAIFA members is the current effort, largely being driven by House Republicans, to include a policy rider to prevent the Department of Labor (DOL) from using any of its funding to work on its proposed fiduciary rule. Other high-profile policy rider issues include restrictions (or outright prohibitions) on funds used in relation to abortion, transgender care, and investigations into former President Trump and/or President Biden.

Also, of interest/concern to many NAIFA members is the need to extend the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and its funding by March 8.

Prospects: It will be very difficult for Congress to enact the 12 appropriations bills (even if packaged into three or four “minibus” bills) by the March 1/March 8 deadlines. Failure to do so risks (again!) a government shutdown and/or the FRA’s one percent across-the-board spending cuts that kick in if Congress does no more than another CR.

The policy rider controversies will be intense. Currently, it appears unlikely that killing the proposed fiduciary rule by way of a policy rider defunding it will be included in a final agreement. However, an extension of the NFIP seems likely.

So far, Congress has avoided what looked like near-certain government shutdowns three times (September 30 ahead of an October 1 deadline, November 18 ahead of a November 19 deadline, and January 18, ahead of a January 19 deadline). In each of those times, it looked like it would be impossible to enact government funding legislation in time. So, the fact that it also looks near-impossible now, ahead of the March 1/March 8 deadlines, does not mean that Congress will fail, despite predictions to the contrary. We will of course keep you posted.

NAIFA Staff Contacts: Diane Boyle – Senior Vice President – Government Relations, at dboyle@naifa.org; or Jayne Fitzgerald – Director – Government Relations, at jfitzgerald@naifa.org; or Michael Hedge – Senior Director – Government Relations, at mhedge@naifa.org.