On Wednesday November 12 President Trump signed into law a Senate-passed agreement that was approved by the House that reopened the federal government. The agreement guarantees a Senate vote by mid-December on extending the Affordable Care Act enhanced premium tax credits (PTCs), funds about 10 percent of the government for all of FY 2026, funds the remaining 90 percent of federal government discretionary activity at FY 2025 levels until January 30, reverses reductions in force (RIFs) done on or after October 1 and forbids further government layoffs through January 30. The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) is reauthorized until January 30, 2026, and is reauthorized retroactively to October 1, 2025.

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) enhanced PTC issue is still unresolved, and is reaching a crisis point. Premium increases that will take effect in January are causing sticker shock in red as well as blue states and districts. In some cases, premium rates without the PTC enhancements are showing on open enrollment websites at double or even triple the 2025 rates. Some Republicans are adding their voices to the chorus of Democrats who are demanding action to stave off these huge health insurance premium spikes. But others oppose extending the enhancements, saying that they were put in place in response to the COVID-19 emergency which is now over. Premium subsidies will continue, they say, just not at the enhanced level.

It is unclear whether separate votes will extend the PTC enhancements prior to their expiration on December 31, 2025. There are talks ongoing—some among Congressional Republicans, some among Democrats, and some between lawmakers from both parties. But given the President’s and many in the GOP Congressional leadership’s opposition, many Washington insiders are betting against an extension. And if one is agreed to, it seems likely the enhancements will be modified. Those modifications could include a one or two year only extension with a lower income cap, a minimum payment requirement for those using the enhanced PTCs, and a ban on PTC-financed health insurance inclusion of abortion coverage.

During the week of November 3, after more than a month of impasse, signs of potential progress began to emerge. A number of proposals were floated, including pairing a new continuing resolution (CR) with a January 30 effective date with a commitment to bring a PTC extension proposal up for a Senate vote by mid-December and a three-bill regular order minibus appropriations bill. (The minibus funds Military Construction, the Veterans Administration, the Department of Agriculture, and the Legislative Branch for all of FY 2026). That proposal ultimately became the backbone of the new law.

On November 7, President Trump weighed in. He (1) repeatedly called on Senate Republicans to change the rules to eliminate the legislative (60-vote) filibuster, and (2) suggested that the PTC structure be changed so that the subsidies would go directly to people rather than to health insurance companies. Neither of those proposals triggered a breakthrough, but his apparent unwillingness to negotiate with Democrats on the PTC issue influenced the breakthrough. Senate Republicans said no to his proposal to kill the filibuster rule (they fear such a move would boomerang to their detriment when Democrats regain control of the Senate, something that is virtually certain to happen at some point, if not after next year’s midterm elections). And they also declined to deal with his proposal to pay people rather than insurance companies, at least at this point in the process.

Prospects: The government is now again open, but the core issue that led to the 43-day shutdown—extension (perhaps as modified) of ACA enhanced PTCs—remains unresolved. Efforts to address this issue, along with the need to fund the government past the new January 30 expiration date, will dominate Congressional activity for the rest of the year.

NAIFA Staff Contacts: Diane Boyle – Senior Vice President – Government Relations, at dboyle@naifa.org; Mike Hedge – Senior Director – Government Relations, at mhedge@naifa.org; or Jayne Fitzgerald – Director – Government Relations, at jfitzgerald@naifa.org.