Congress ended its summer break on September 9, returning to Washington to deal with the need to fund the U.S. government by midnight September 30. None of the 12 regular-order appropriations bills, which together fund the U.S. government’s discretionary activities for each fiscal year, have been enacted into law. None have passed the Senate, and only five have passed the House. Hence, there is no visible way Congress can enact many (if any) of these 12 bills before Fiscal Year (FY) 2024 ends on September 30.

Failure to enact government funding legislation means a government shutdown. And that is a result no lawmaker from either party or in either chamber wants, especially just five weeks ahead of the November elections. So, it is virtually certain that Congress will focus on enacting a short-term continuing resolution (CR) to keep the government funded—probably at FY 2024 levels and with few if any policy changes—as of October 1.

But even passing a CR will not be easy in the hyper-charged pre-election partisan atmosphere in Congress this month. On September 6, Speaker of the House Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA) offered a six-month CR to fund the government, largely at current (FY 2024) funding levels, through March 2025. The plan includes an extension of and funding for the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). It also includes an unrelated measure, the SAVE Act. The SAVE Act would impose stricter voter identification rules applicable to federal elections.

However, this first CR is controversial—the SAVE Act is a “poison pill” for most Democrats. It is viewed as having no chance for acceptance in the Senate. The funding levels are below what Democrats say is the agreed-to level from the negotiations surrounding the 2023 Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA). And many lawmakers would prefer a shorter CR, one that would expire (and force further Congressional action, either on a full-year FY 2025 funding bill or on another CR) in December. Further, some in Congress want to add policy riders—so-called “anomalies”—to change underlying law on such issues as regulations (including the fiduciary rule, the regulation banning noncompete agreements, rules on overtime pay, and the regulation on worker classification), abortion, election law, etc.

Some in Congress warn that the possibility exists that a government shutdown will occur, even on “just” the CR, as resolving the differences among lawmakers on these issues will be difficult. However, most believe that the political risk of a government shutdown will prevent that result.

Prospects: Washington insiders believe that ultimately the CR will last until mid-December (with the possibility of another extension into 2025). How the controversial government funding decisions are resolved will depend to a great extent on who wins the elections in November. If either party wins control of the House, Senate, and Presidency (and if so, which party it is), the results will be very different than if there were to be divided government in 2025.

But it does appear likely that NFIP authorization and funding will be included in whatever CR Congress enacts. Insiders also believe that there appears to be virtually no chance that the House-passed tax bill, H.R.7024, which is stalled in the Senate, will be added to the CR.

NAIFA Staff Contacts: Diane Boyle – Senior Vice President – Government Relations, at dboyle@naifa.org; or Jayne Fitzgerald – Director – Government Relations, at jfitzgerald@naifa.org; or Michael Hedge – Senior Director – Government Relations, at mhedge@naifa.org.